I am seeing a significant decrease (15%) that started right after cyber Monday. This is across all the market places where we are selling. Last year things picked up again right after Christmas for us. On the flip side we do sell items we wouldn't sell otherwise like the Bauble form last year.
Normally should be the busiest month but somehow much less I am getting than recent months. Depending on the location, numbers of buyers around feeling Lego festive mood, postage prices going up which doesn't help, and recent exchange rates between UK and EU had reduced to near nothing of getting orders from EU.
At Over the Brick. I think the Lego Movie was the best part that contribute more sales for us here? I used to get frenzy of orders during the Lego Movie time before it dropped slowly toward summer and only a slight rise in October. Agreed about across the marketplace as I see many desperate sellers are offering sales which I read a lot in BL forum and I only got a record low 3 orders but I am not worried about it and won't follow the sale discount desperation trap. Let it ride it out naturally and it will improve at some point.
Hi. I see that my store is not as much visited this month as earlier months. Is December usually a weaker month with Christmas and all?
I track order volume on the other site. December is usually down slightly from November, but that's for the whole month -- the start of December is actually higher.
I don't know if similar trends happen on BrickOwl, but I expect so.
That data is of no relevance, it only displays 'number' of orders, and has nothing to do here on this forum either IMHO (sorry, but we need to stop comparing sites, and displaying data from another site is IMHO not the right course of action)
So Real data (just throw your data it in an excell sheet if you wanna be able to make any).
Valuewise, as I don't look at number of orders as I find such irrelevant.
in 2013 I only sold for 3 months here. December was my best month. 2014: Full year, December was my second best month of the year. 2015: Not even half way through the month and it's in spot number 10, getting close to spot number 9. making a prognosing is hard, but assuming the same amount will be sold in the next half of december, it should reach spot 6, maybe 5. Obviously a final calculation can only be done at the end of the month.
According to the chart, it looks like a small decline is normal for December. My sales seem to be a random all over the place thing, regardless of trends. It's weird. But anyway, the slow times = more time to add inventory for the busy times.
According to the chart, it looks like a small decline is normal for December. My sales seem to be a random all over the place thing, regardless of trends. It's weird. But anyway, the slow times = more time to add inventory for the busy times.
Yes, December is lower than November for most years, but the slow-down is later in the month. The first half of the month (which is all the current data for 2015), December is higher.
The smaller the store, the more likely that you will see randomness. Once a store is getting dozens of orders a day, you can probably expect a reasonable comparison to trends for the whole site.
Thanks @figbits very insightful. There is probably no easy way to figure out but I bet each country has a slightly different profile (although the trend is probably similar overall).
A view from the cheap seats. I'm just an average Lego fan, a buyer - not a seller. Since Thanksgiving I have place all my energy on finding gifts for various people. Only one is interested in Lego. I've almost complete my quest - only one left - thats my wife. Not interested in anything constructive. The vast majority of sales are individual parts, not sets. (The sole Lego fan on my list would want a sel.) Add to that the fact that BrickOwl has more stores will eat into any anticipate growth. It would seem all my resources are going elsewhere. In general, even 'free shipping' would not be an inducement for me to concentrate on what to build and what parts I need to acquire. Seeing myself as average, it would come as no surprise that BrickOwl or other aftermarket seller(s) slumps in December. By the same token, the week after Christmas as well as January could be explosive. Best of luck and Merry Christmas to all...
Because in this particular matter, there is nothing to compare... 1. we have no data in regards to number of orders (except the one from ourselfs) 2. we have no data in regards to number of buyers 3. it's a different public 4. the general monthly based evolution/sales data ain't the same.
Example: my BO sales so far in december are 2x the ones on BL (but only halfway trough the month, so things might change offcourse) In november it was 37% more on BO in oktober it was 5% more on BO in september it was 200% more on BL in august it was 300% more on BL in july it was 40% more on BL in june it was 16% more on BO in may it was 42% more on BO in april it was 100% more on BL in march it was near 'even' in februari it was 85 % more on BL in januari it was 65% more on BO
if I look at last year, I sold 50% more on BO If I look at this year, I sold 20% more on BL If I take the data of both sites for a period of 2 years, then it's a 52/48 break (BO/BL)
Items wise? Well, in 2015 I sold 12K of items on BL, 22K of items on BO, so with nearly half less items sold, I still sold +20% more 'value' wise on BL (it means I have to work harder on BO LOL), obviously, a bunch of sets will quickly make a significant difference (and for me that's exactly what happend)
But if you look at the figures above, there is hardly a period where things don't jump up and down between both sites, that makes them uncomparable IMHO, and makes them rather complementary (at least for me), with no indication whatsoever that 'sales wise' they follow eachother troughout the year ;-)
1) You can't reasonably extrapolate the overall trend for the site(s) based on the data from a single store. We should absolutely expect huge variation from one month to the next within one store. My store does not always follow the overall BL trend, even though it's a fairly busy medium-sized store -- I sold 47K parts there in the last 6 months, but that is a drop in the bucket compared to the site as a whole.
So, I agree with you that we have no good way of measuring the trends on BrickOwl. I think I disagree about what gives us the most reasonable estimate, though. To me, an individual store's data is basically useless to extrapolate from, whereas assuming that BO follows a similar trend to BL is somewhat reasonable, so I would lean toward that.
2) I thought that you were saying that we should simply stop making comparisons between the two sites, which is what I replied "why?" to. I can understand the idea that it isn't useful in this case, but it sounded like you were saying more than that -- that somehow it is inappropriate to draw any comparisons between the sites.
I won't give a comparison over last year but compared to the last few months December is going gangbusters. I had one lady tell me she was working on completing a Modular as a gift for her son. I suppose having the right parts helps in those case. More luck than anything.
I track order volume on the other site. December is usually down slightly from November, but that's for the whole month -- the start of December is actually higher.
I don't know if similar trends happen on BrickOwl, but I expect so.
Hey Marc, that's a beautiful chart, thanks for making it and posting it.
To better estimate calendar year trends, it would be good to consolidate the data for each calendar month, and then chart the result. July 2010 + July 2011 + July 2012, etc. I'd do it myself, but I think that part of your sheet is locked.
Compared to my first message in this thread (4 days ago), december moved to spot n° 6 (was on spot n°10), a bit of a gap to spot n°5 (but still 2 weeks to go), but soon I do (well, actually my buyers) close that gap, it's a fairly small amount (let's say 5 or 6 orders on average) to move december to spot n°2 this year. I'm curious :-) Still at 'x2' compared to BL, so pretty stable in those regards.
Hey Marc, that's a beautiful chart, thanks for making it and posting it.
To better estimate calendar year trends, it would be good to consolidate the data for each calendar month, and then chart the result. July 2010 + July 2011 + July 2012, etc. I'd do it myself, but I think that part of your sheet is locked.
That's basically what the "projection" lines does. (Only, instead of adding the data from each year, it finds the mean of the difference between adjacent months). I could probably add a new tab just showing that average trend line.
December just moved to spot n°2 for me on Brickowl (as somehow expected 2 weeks ago, but never 'for granted' offcourse). So, not bad for a 'low sales' month :P Need to thank all buyers offcourse, 2015 has been awesome ! Hopefully 2016 will match it, happy 'NEW' to all !
Same story here. After a slow start, December turned out to be one of the best month. One surprising fact is that star wars figures didn't sell much for us here but did sell like hot cakes on other sites.
Comments
At Over the Brick. I think the Lego Movie was the best part that contribute more sales for us here? I used to get frenzy of orders during the Lego Movie time before it dropped slowly toward summer and only a slight rise in October. Agreed about across the marketplace as I see many desperate sellers are offering sales which I read a lot in BL forum and I only got a record low 3 orders but I am not worried about it and won't follow the sale discount desperation trap. Let it ride it out naturally and it will improve at some point.
I track order volume on the other site. December is usually down slightly from November, but that's for the whole month -- the start of December is actually higher.
I don't know if similar trends happen on BrickOwl, but I expect so.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EgTKBiHcpzSH0duiMl9fUH-qR9TKsSKbAlp-M3iED1k/edit?usp=sharing
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Marc.
So Real data (just throw your data it in an excell sheet if you wanna be able to make any).
Valuewise, as I don't look at number of orders as I find such irrelevant.
in 2013 I only sold for 3 months here. December was my best month.
2014: Full year, December was my second best month of the year.
2015: Not even half way through the month and it's in spot number 10, getting close to spot number 9.
making a prognosing is hard, but assuming the same amount will be sold in the next half of december, it should reach spot 6, maybe 5. Obviously a final calculation can only be done at the end of the month.
The smaller the store, the more likely that you will see randomness. Once a store is getting dozens of orders a day, you can probably expect a reasonable comparison to trends for the whole site.
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Marc.
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Marc.
I'm just an average Lego fan, a buyer - not a seller.
Since Thanksgiving I have place all my energy on finding gifts for various people. Only one is interested in Lego. I've almost complete my quest - only one left - thats my wife. Not interested in anything constructive.
The vast majority of sales are individual parts, not sets. (The sole Lego fan on my list would want a sel.)
Add to that the fact that BrickOwl has more stores will eat into any anticipate growth.
It would seem all my resources are going elsewhere.
In general, even 'free shipping' would not be an inducement for me to concentrate on what to build and what parts I need to acquire.
Seeing myself as average, it would come as no surprise that BrickOwl or other aftermarket seller(s) slumps in December.
By the same token, the week after Christmas as well as January could be explosive.
Best of luck and Merry Christmas to all...
1. we have no data in regards to number of orders (except the one from ourselfs)
2. we have no data in regards to number of buyers
3. it's a different public
4. the general monthly based evolution/sales data ain't the same.
Example:
my BO sales so far in december are 2x the ones on BL (but only halfway trough the month, so things might change offcourse)
In november it was 37% more on BO
in oktober it was 5% more on BO
in september it was 200% more on BL
in august it was 300% more on BL
in july it was 40% more on BL
in june it was 16% more on BO
in may it was 42% more on BO
in april it was 100% more on BL
in march it was near 'even'
in februari it was 85 % more on BL
in januari it was 65% more on BO
if I look at last year, I sold 50% more on BO
If I look at this year, I sold 20% more on BL
If I take the data of both sites for a period of 2 years, then it's a 52/48 break (BO/BL)
Items wise? Well, in 2015 I sold 12K of items on BL, 22K of items on BO, so with nearly half less items sold, I still sold +20% more 'value' wise on BL (it means I have to work harder on BO LOL), obviously, a bunch of sets will quickly make a significant difference (and for me that's exactly what happend)
But if you look at the figures above, there is hardly a period where things don't jump up and down between both sites, that makes them uncomparable IMHO, and makes them rather complementary (at least for me), with no indication whatsoever that 'sales wise' they follow eachother troughout the year ;-)
1)
You can't reasonably extrapolate the overall trend for the site(s) based on the data from a single store. We should absolutely expect huge variation from one month to the next within one store. My store does not always follow the overall BL trend, even though it's a fairly busy medium-sized store -- I sold 47K parts there in the last 6 months, but that is a drop in the bucket compared to the site as a whole.
So, I agree with you that we have no good way of measuring the trends on BrickOwl. I think I disagree about what gives us the most reasonable estimate, though. To me, an individual store's data is basically useless to extrapolate from, whereas assuming that BO follows a similar trend to BL is somewhat reasonable, so I would lean toward that.
2)
I thought that you were saying that we should simply stop making comparisons between the two sites, which is what I replied "why?" to. I can understand the idea that it isn't useful in this case, but it sounded like you were saying more than that -- that somehow it is inappropriate to draw any comparisons between the sites.
--
Marc.
To better estimate calendar year trends, it would be good to consolidate the data for each calendar month, and then chart the result. July 2010 + July 2011 + July 2012, etc. I'd do it myself, but I think that part of your sheet is locked.
- John
I'm curious :-)
Still at 'x2' compared to BL, so pretty stable in those regards.
That's basically what the "projection" lines does. (Only, instead of adding the data from each year, it finds the mean of the difference between adjacent months). I could probably add a new tab just showing that average trend line.
--
Marc.
So, not bad for a 'low sales' month :P
Need to thank all buyers offcourse, 2015 has been awesome ! Hopefully 2016 will match it, happy 'NEW' to all !