Unusual drop in order rate

jamesuniverse

I have been getting a pretty significant amount of orders each week until this week. Any changes I didn't see that will affect my store? This is extremely odd as not only on BrickOwl, but the other site I have gotten so few orders. I am really confused and well. I could use the sales. :P

~JU

polarbomber

same here , march has been mucho poor month , i blame the sun

robernat

Natural flow, most buyers are active in fall and winter time, once spring comes closer it starts to slow down, and usually lasts untill august, then it picks up again (new sets by TLG as well) and slowly grows towards peaks in november december and januari (must say, this year it kept going in febrauri as well). It has been like that for many years for me and most likely for many sellers, the only recourse: list new stuff, cover those slower months and make sure you have a decent inventory by august :P

johnsma2000

I think it's Spring Break. Kids are off from school so families go on vacation. They are traveling and not online placing orders.
Melissa

Stragus

same here , march has been mucho poor month , i blame the sun

Because of the sun, you say... Well, it's still snowing in Montreal, so we should be safe against any slow down.

As others have mentioned, I believe it's part of the annual cycle.

brickfeverparts

In Holland it Always rains, so no slowing down here

It is the anual cycle indeed.....

Jiries

It was the opposite here as when I first open in September I was getting so many orders and same to October despite weekends closures and over a week off vacation had not deterred them, every time I open it rash of orders come in. It had slow down a bit in November then continue to slow down slowly in Dec to Feb before taking a plunge in March. I don't think is something to do with the weather or season since I got so many orders in a remaining summery weather in Sept when I rather be outside than staying indoors all the time. It likely the location where you are selling, some stores gave out up to 50% off that made many buyers raised the expectation to expect all other stores to give big discounts so they stay back and won't buy parts from non-discount stores. Or buyers had no projects now to build at the moment, short of money since nasty council tax bills arrived on their doorsteps, buying new cars as they came out under year 15 plates like myself brought one recently. There many reasons that we can't know what caused of it.

Teup

Natural flow, most buyers are active in fall and winter time, once spring comes closer it starts to slow down, and usually lasts untill august, then it picks up again (new sets by TLG as well)

Actually, for me it has always been the opposite! Winter so-so, then a big peak around march, quiet around may, and then in june another peak, and then quiet again around august.

I've asked a similar question before and people also came up with cycles, and they were all different. I guess it depends on where you are, what you are selling and who your target audience is. I know Dutch sellers who mainly sell sets to Australia while I sell only parts mostly in the EU, obviously the annual cycle should be quite a bit different! I agree it's an annual cycle, but if you want the best answers, it's best to look at your own annual cycle instead of comparing to others

robernat

The anual cycle is pretty constant when looking back at similar threads in the past, it does not mean there aren't exceptions, it does not mean some stores have exceptions, it does not mean it completely drops down, it's just an 'average' and around this time of year most sellers start complaining about a 'drop' off orders (year after year), so the only way to know for sure is to get official statistics, but we won't be getting those I suppose. ;-)
There is also a natural cycle for each individual seller: you're low on orders, so you have time to list some extra stuff, because of that you get new orders, so you're listing less, after a while you have less stuff, so you get less orders, and start 'adding' again. This cycle can be 'stopped' for personal reasons, for example, during summer I'm busy a lot 'outside', so less time to be 'inside' and sort and list, others have too hot summers and spend their time inside with the airco on...

So indeed all kind of parameters can cause 'differences' from one person to another, but for the average group it is an anual cycle, as indeed during spring an summer people spend more time outside (on average) and have less time for their 'indoor' hobby, during that period the other side of the world (Asia / Australia) is living the opposite, so this also generates a flow of orders, but since the vast majority of buyers are on the northern part of the world, there isn't a perfect 'balance' between the two sides.
And so yes, while for a part of the sellers there is a drop of orders, for others it may remain constant, or go 'up', but 'on average' this is a yearly returning cycle.
The opposite is rarely mentioned because sellers are happy they are making some extra cashflow, and have less time to be on the forums to 'complain' they are overwhelmed with orders :-D

goshe7

^Agreed on the annual cycle that peaks in Nov/Dec/Jan. I was surprised that February was strong for me.

Teup

Another factor that has not been mentioned yet is that many people do their tax returns around this time of year. It can make people re-evaluate their spendings (and realise Lego is a scandalously expensive hobby.. but after a while the addiction will restore balance ). Other sellers brought this to my attention and I think it may be true. Someone else mentioned a cycle per quarter, where januari was low, februari OK and march high, april low, may OK, june high, etc. That pattern seems to match quite well with my own experience. But whatever your personal cycle may be, there certainly seems to be some quiet time around the beginning of spring for almost everyone :P And if I recall correctly, someone who kept statistics for BL revealed an annual cycle consistent with what you guys described.